The Clarence was still mostly silver. A thin strip of sunlight had reached the far bank. Purple flowers lay across the footpath.
“Beautiful,” said Kate.
“Slippery,” said Jo.
They slowed beside the river. Somewhere behind them a ute started, reconsidered, then started properly.
“Australia’s batting, eh,” said Kate.
“I was having a nice morning.”
“Yes, but familiar isn’t it, stick with what you’ve got and eventually it will force exploration. I was asking the AI what will emerge when the financing model falls over, and it gave me companies to short and companies that make money cleaning up financial failures and companies that would buy up the parts that had value.”
“Accountants survive asteroid impact. Cockroaches with billable hours. Pensioners probably a bit f*cked though.”
“And probably a perfectly reasonable answer. But then I thought: how many other people asking that question are getting the same starting point? I wanted emergence and it gave me probabilities.”
“Everyone buys accountants.”
“Perhaps. Their shares go up. Someone writes an article explaining why restructuring firms are the next big opportunity. The machine finds the article.”
“And recommends accountants. Now with supporting evidence.”
A cyclist passed them, ringing his bell after he had passed, gave a little wave.
“But that’s the f*cking problem. Was it right about what was going to happen, or did enough people following the article help make it happen? I mean it is just a boosted google search, pay enough you get the top answer, everyone reads the tops?”
They passed a jacaranda whose roots had lifted a slab of concrete.
“It doesn’t even have to give everyone exactly the same answer,” Kate continued. “Just keep making the same things easy to find. Same companies. Same business models. Same idea of what counts as a sensible investment.”
“And the other things?”
A bird delivered a sharp, indignant assessment from somewhere above them.
“So what were you trying to get it to do?”
“Follow the consequences. Financing dries up. Governments worry about dependence. They buy local computing. Small providers get customers. They employ people. Now there’s someone local who can maintain the bloody thing.”
“Maybe it costs a bit more or is less convenient but it is local development, besides paying extra is worth being able to keep the hospitals running.”
“Until you need a foreign part.”
“Yes. Then follow that. Who makes the part? Can they replace it? Could three countries buy enough between them to support someone making it?”
“They’ll still need accountants then.”
Jo chuckled. “The point is, those little businesses might never show up in a search for likely winners. They’re barely viable under the conditions we have now. Change the conditions and suddenly they’ve got a purpose.”
“But if everyone keeps getting pointed towards the established firms and we call that the market choosing.”
They started jogging again, gently, along the water.
“Look at us,” said Jo. “Same run. Same time. Same coffee afterwards.”
“We like the coffee.”
“We know the coffee.”
“It’s survived extensive testing.”
Kate glanced at her.
The path curved beneath another canopy. Purple above, purple underfoot. Jo shortened her stride.
“So everyone walking down the same path turns it into a road.”
“Yes. Then someone puts up a sign saying it’s the only practical route.”
“And the machine reads the sign.”
Across the river, sunlight caught a track between the trees.
“Exploration tomorrow, then.”
