🧭 The Infrastructure Paradox and the Final Energy Window: A Public Briefing
Til: Energi- og miljøkomiteen, Stortinget
Fra: Uavhengig energianalyse
🌍 The Situation
We are living in a unique and vanishing moment in human history — the only time we will ever have the energy, materials, and technological capacity to build the infrastructure needed for a sustainable future. This is not a metaphor. It is a physical, ecological, and thermodynamic reality.
🧱 The Infrastructure Paradox
- When infrastructure works well, it becomes invisible.
- Because it’s invisible, it’s neglected.
- When it fails, we scramble to fix it — often too late.
- This cycle is especially dangerous for fossil fuel-based infrastructure, which is energy-intensive to build and maintain.
⛽ The Fossil Fuel Trap
- Most of our infrastructure was built using high-EROI fossil fuels (Energy Return on Investment).
- As fossil fuels decline in quality and accessibility, the net energy available to society shrinks.
- Building renewable infrastructure (solar, wind, batteries, grids) requires massive upfront energy, which still comes mostly from fossil fuels.
- If we wait too long, we may not have enough surplus energy to build the systems we need — this is the fossil fuel trap.
🧠 Economic Assumptions Are Misleading
- Mainstream economics assumes substitutability (capital ↔ energy) and ceteris paribus (all else equal).
- These assumptions ignore physical limits, material constraints, and ecological feedbacks.
- Ecological and biophysical economics offer more realistic models, grounded in thermodynamics and systems thinking.
| Aspect | Mainstream Economics | Ecological/Biophysical Economics |
|---|---|---|
| Substitutability | High (capital ↔ energy) | Low (energy is foundational) |
| Ceteris Paribus | Common assumption | Rarely applicable in real systems |
| Energy Modeling | Often abstract or omitted | Explicit and central |
| Policy Implication | Optimistic about tech replacement | Cautious, emphasizes limits |
| Infrastructure View | Replaceable with investment | Constrained by energy/material limits |
🕰️ The Window Is Closing
- The next 25–50 years are likely the only time in history when we can:
- Use fossil energy to build a post-fossil system.
- Access critical materials at scale.
- Avoid catastrophic climate and ecological tipping points.
- After this window, energy and ecological constraints may make such a transition impossible.
📰 Why Isn’t This in the Media?
- It’s complex, long-term, and doesn’t fit into simple headlines.
- Powerful interests benefit from the status quo.
- Journalists and policymakers often lack training in systems thinking.
- The public is left uninformed about the most important challenge of our time.
🗳️ A Democratic Imperative
This is not just a technical issue — it’s a moral and democratic one. The remaining fossil energy and material wealth of the Earth is a common inheritance. People deserve a say in how it is used:
- Will we spend it on weapons, highways, and short-term growth?
- Or will we invest it in long-lived, peaceful, resilient infrastructure that serves future generations?
📚 Recommended Reading List
🔧 Energy Systems & Infrastructure
- Vaclav Smil – Energy and Civilization: A History
- Richard Heinberg – The End of Growth
- Charles Hall & Kent Klitgaard – Energy and the Wealth of Nations
🌱 Ecological & Biophysical Economics
- Herman Daly – Beyond Growth
- Tim Jackson – Prosperity Without Growth
- Jason Hickel – Less Is More
🧠 Systems Thinking & Transition Strategy
- Donella Meadows – Thinking in Systems
- Ugo Bardi – Extracted
- Alice Friedemann – Life After Fossil Fuels
📄 Key Reports & Papers
- IEA – Net Zero by 2050: https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
- Post Carbon Institute – EROI Primer: https://www.postcarbon.org/publications/the-energy-return-on-investment/
- SIPRI – Military Expenditure Database: https://sipri.org/research/armament/military-expenditure
Ceteris Paribus 